Stagwell, Omnicom and a World on Edge: What CMOs Must Do Now

CMOs face agency upheaval and global shocks. Here is how to protect media performance and flexibility.

The ID Comms Breakdown

CMOs should treat today’s agency moves and geopolitical shocks as a single, connected media risk problem and respond by tightening capabilities, stress‑testing agency operating systems and protecting flexibility in 2026 commitments.

You cannot control Stagwell’s growth, Omnicom’s strategy or a Middle East war, but you can control how precisely you deploy every dollar of media investment.

In this #MediaSnack Live episode, Tom Denford and David Indo connect three stories that matter for every senior marketer:

• Stagwell’s strong 2025 results and rapid growth in its Marketing Cloud AI portfolio
• Omnicom’s investor‑day narrative, new strapline-style messaging and its focus on building a ‘right to win’ moat through data and switching costs
• A worsening Middle East conflict that the International Energy Agency warns is creating the largest oil supply disruption in history, with inevitable knock‑on effects for inflation, supply chains and, yes, media

For CMOs, Procurement Directors and Global Heads of Media, the point is not to be spooked. The point is to lead.

This post translates Tom Denford and David Indo’s discussion into a practical gameplan you can use to protect competitive advantage in media over the next 6 to 12 months.

Stagwell’s challenger momentum and what it signals for your next pitch

Stagwell is no longer the quiet challenger on the sidelines. As David Indo highlights, the US‑headquartered group has just posted around 6% revenue growth for 2025, outpacing several legacy holding companies that are flat or in decline. Its digital transformation business is up double‑digits and its Marketing Cloud AI suite has reportedly grown more than 200% year‑on‑year from a smaller base.

For CMOs and procurement leaders, the numbers are interesting. The underlying signal is more important. Stagwell has spent years positioning itself as a progressive, AI‑enabled, performance‑driven alternative to traditional networks. Some clients previously found that proposition almost too advanced for their own internal readiness. The market has now caught up.

Tom Denford and David Indo describe Stagwell as part of the ‘red ocean’ of mid‑sized groups, alongside Horizon, Havas and Dentsu, competing in a crowded field.

Stagwell’s current good trajectory suggests two things:

• The challenger narrative is resonating with big brands such as Microsoft, Target and Grubhub
• Advertisers are more willing to back a non‑legacy operating model if it feels coherent and future‑facing

From an ID Comms perspective, there are three pragmatic actions for your next agency review or pitch:

1. Be forensic about what you are really asking for. Before you invite Stagwell, a holding company or any independent into a process, map your own operating model. Where are your in‑house media capabilities strong, and where are they fragile? Which markets truly need integrated performance and AI enablement, and which still require foundational basics? A vague brief invites theatre, not solutions.
2. Be brave enough to let challengers challenge you. In the show, David recalls a pitch where Stagwell’s story was so progressive that the client admitted they were not brave enough to buy it at the time. Today, that same kind of progressive model may be exactly what you need. Use pitches to learn as much as to select. Ask Stagwell and its peers to show how their ‘machine’ or operating system really works day‑to‑day on your data, your markets and your KPIs.
3. Interrogate the operating system, not just the showreel. Stagwell’s ‘machine’ is their language for a unifying layer across their agencies. Every group now talks about platforms, clouds and operating systems. As David keeps repeating on #MediaSnack, you must forensically understand what sits under the hood. How does data move? How is AI actually deployed? What does a planner, buyer or strategist log into on a Monday morning?

A useful litmus test: if your CMO, CFO and CIO cannot clearly explain the agency’s operating system and its alignment to your own, you are not yet ready to sign a multi‑year deal.

What’s going on?

In practical terms, Stagwell’s momentum tells us that marketers are tired of homogenous offers from the big groups. They want sharper propositions, clearer accountability and platforms that were built for an AI‑enabled future rather than retro‑fitted onto legacy pipes.

Stagwell is benefiting from that demand at exactly the moment when some of the largest holding companies are tied up untangling their own complexity. That is the real context for its 6% revenue growth and rapid expansion in AI‑driven services.

What are the implications?

The first implication is competitive: if your peers can access more agile, AI‑enabled planning and activation through challenger groups, your category benchmarks will move faster than your own organization. Speed and quality of decision‑making in media will become a differentiator, not just scale.

The second implication is contractual. Challenger groups often promise flexibility and simplicity. That can be a real advantage in a volatile market, but only if the commercial model is equally modern. CMOs and procurement leaders should pressure‑test how fees, data ownership and technology charges behave if spend swings up or down by 20 to 30%.

How should marketers be thinking?

Treat Stagwell’s performance as a wake‑up call, not a bandwagon. Use it to trigger an internal conversation:

• Are we clear on the profile of partner we need for the next three years, not the last three?
• Do we have enough internal capability to evaluate AI‑driven offers properly?
• Have we stress‑tested our current agency’s operating system against the kind of progressive models challengers are selling?

If the answer to any of those questions is ‘no’, that is your agenda for the next quarter.

Omnicom, consolidation and the shrinking room to negotiate

While Stagwell plays the challenger, Omnicom is busy telling investors a very different story. At its recent investor briefing, the company framed its ambition in terms like ‘our right to win’ and talked openly about using technology to raise switching costs for clients. The message lands well on Wall Street. It can feel less comfortable if you are a CMO.

In parallel, Omnicom is deep into a platform transformation, centred on its Omni data and AI environment. Industry analyses describe a capital‑intensive bet: billions invested, thousands of roles restructured and a goal of building an essential operating system for modern marketing.

The thread that connects this to your world is consolidation. Platform stories and ‘right to win’ narratives usually serve one purpose: to justify greater control over client data, workflows and budgets.

What’s going on?

Across media, we see three overlapping trends that Tom Denford and David Indo call out:

• Holding companies are racing to build closed operating systems. Omni at Omnicom, Open at WPP, and equivalents elsewhere all aim to integrate identity, planning, buying and reporting in one environment.
• Investor messaging is increasingly about lock‑in. Phrases like ‘raising switching costs’ or ‘capturing data exhaust’ are music to analysts’ ears. They signal that once a client is in the system, it becomes painful to leave.
• Media owners continue to consolidate. From streaming mergers to cross‑market alliances, there are simply fewer large‑scale places to put your TV and video money each year. That decreases your leverage on pricing and terms.

What are the implications?

When agencies and media owners both consolidate, the negotiating room for advertisers literally shrinks. That has three consequences:

1. Higher risk of hidden structural dependency. If your data, measurement and activation are deeply wired into a single holding‑company stack, the practical cost of switching agency multiplies. Procurement may still run a pitch, but the technical migration can become a deal‑breaker.
2. Potential upward pressure on media costs. Fewer sellers and more integrated demand can lead to higher prices for reach and premium inventory, especially in video. Even small changes in CPMs can wipe out the savings you hoped to gain from a pitch.
3. A wider value gap between sophisticated and passive clients. Advertisers who understand and actively manage these dynamics will negotiate smarter contracts and retain flexibility. Those who do not risk over‑committing to rigid deals at exactly the wrong time.

How should marketers be thinking?

Tom and David’s advice aligns with what we see in ID Comms consultancy work:

• Insist on radical transparency around operating systems. Ask Omnicom, or any partner, to map data flows, decision rights and dependencies in plain language. Who owns IDs? Who controls model IP? What happens if you terminate the contract?
• Bake flexibility into your 2026 commitments. As upfronts approach, resist pressure to lock in too much too early. Structure deals with clear options to rephase, reduce or reallocate spend without punitive penalties.
• Run a focused media capability assessment. Before you renegotiate with a major group, benchmark your own team’s ability to understand and govern a complex platform relationship. Weak in‑house capability is the single biggest risk factor for over‑dependence.

In a world of ‘rights to win’, your own right to walk away is a strategic asset. Protect it.

Geopolitics, supply shocks and why media leaders must sit at the top table

The final act of this #MediaSnack episode moves away from agencies and looks at something the trade press is barely discussing: the impact of a worsening Middle East conflict on marketing.

The International Energy Agency now warns that the war is creating the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global market. Around 20 million barrels per day of crude and products that would normally move through the Strait of Hormuz have been severely constrained. Gulf producers have already cut output by at least 10 million barrels per day.

What’s going on?

For CMOs, this is not about geopolitical commentary. It is about anticipating second‑ and third‑order effects:

• Energy price spikes feed into manufacturing and logistics costs
• Supply chains for everything from packaging to ingredients become unstable
• Central banks may respond to inflation pressure with higher rates, cooling demand

In short, your ability to get product on shelf and keep consumer confidence stable is under pressure, even if your category has nothing to do with oil.

What are the implications?

Tom Denford shares a story from Hershey during the Covid era that feels newly relevant. Then‑media leader Charlie Chappell described his team as the ‘engine room’ of demand, with his foot on the gas pedal of media investment. When supply chains were disrupted, he had daily conversations with operations to understand where product would actually be available.

That collaboration allowed Hershey to ‘feather the gas pedal’ of media. Campaigns for constrained SKUs were paused or reshaped. Spend shifted to lines with healthy stock. The media engine stayed finely tuned to real‑world supply, not a static annual plan.

In a prolonged energy and supply shock, every major advertiser will need some version of that playbook. The implications are clear:

1. Annual media plans are now provisional by design. Budgets, channel mixes and creative rotations must be treated as scenarios, not promises.
2. Media leaders must be plugged into supply‑chain conversations. Weekly or even daily updates between media, sales and operations should become the norm for the next quarter.
3. Upfront commitments should be rebalanced toward flexibility. Expect greater use of scatter, biddable video and programmatic channels that can be dialled up or down quickly.

How should marketers be thinking?

David Indo frames this as a leadership opportunity for media directors. When the macro environment turns volatile, controlling the largest variable budget in the P&L becomes a strategic responsibility, not just an executional task.

Pragmatically, here is how CMOs and Global Heads of Media should respond:

• Own the narrative internally. Brief your executive team on how you will protect demand generation while staying tightly aligned with supply. Calm heads and clear plans build confidence.
• Use any pause in spending as an audit window. If you need to slow investment, use that time to identify waste, tighten governance and sharpen your measurement framework. There is never a good reason to waste a media dollar, but especially not now.
• Lean into your agencies, but on your terms. As David notes, many agencies did their best work during the pandemic, helping clients flex quickly. Invite that same partnership now, anchored in clear objectives and transparent data.

Above all, view today’s shocks as a stress test of your entire media ecosystem: capabilities, partners and investments. Brands that pass that test will emerge with disproportionate strength when markets stabilize.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: Is Stagwell only a fit for ‘brave’ digital‑first advertisers?

Not necessarily. Stagwell’s proposition is progressive, with a strong AI and performance story, but that can support mainstream advertisers too. The key is whether your internal capabilities and data foundations are mature enough to use what they offer. If not, the relationship will quickly feel misaligned.

Q2: Should we pause a planned global media pitch because of macro uncertainty?

Not automatically. Large, disruptive pitches can be risky in volatile markets, so some advertisers are sensibly slowing down. A smart compromise is to narrow the scope or phase the review: start with strategic consultancy and operating‑model design, then move into full buying scopes once the macro picture is clearer.

Q3: How much 2026 spend should we lock into upfronts this year?

There is no single magic percentage, but the direction of travel is clear: less than you would commit in a stable market. Prioritize flexibility over the last incremental discount. It is better to give up a small price advantage than be stuck with media you cannot use because of supply or demand shocks.

Q4: What should we ask about an agency’s operating system in an RFP?

Go beyond slideware. Request a live walk‑through of the tools your team would actually use, including planning, optimization and reporting. Clarify data ownership, portability and how the system connects with your own tech stack. Ask what happens to models, tags and IDs if you exit the relationship.

Q5: How do we keep our media team motivated amid all this uncertainty?

Treat them as strategic leaders, not traffic managers. Involve them in cross‑functional planning with finance, sales and supply chain. Celebrate quick, evidence‑based adjustments to plans as wins. When media teams can see the business impact of their decisions, uncertainty becomes a challenge to rise to rather than a source of anxiety.

Episode Transcript

Hello, I'm Tom Denford in New York. And I'm David Indo from London. Welcome to Media Snack Live. It's our weekly roundup of all the important news, and stories, and trends you need to know about the global media and marketing industry. In every show we ask, what is going on? What are the implications for advertisers? And what should marketers be thinking about next? Thanks for joining us, and let's get into this week's show. Hello, mate. Good Friday. Good Friday to you. Friday the 13th. Ah. We love those. We do love those. Uh, great, let's get into the show. We've got a lot- I've been previewing a bit, what we've been planning to talk about this week, um, and, uh, so we'll get into it. I've just, first, just to remind everybody, um, this is the way... Welcome to Media Snack. So this is Media Snack Live. It's a weekly show. Uh, we broadcast live, we stream across a whole bunch of platforms, 11:00 AM Eastern, which is normally 4:00 PM UK time, but there's some complications with some time zone, uh, time changes this week. So, I think it's 3:00 PM there, uh, and around the world. So, and you're very welcome. On Media Snack, we talk about the impact to marketers of what's going on in the media industry globally. Um, and I wanna show you the way that we think about media. This is the way that we think about media. Um, our mission as a business, and this is what Media Snack can do, is to help the world's most ambitious marketers just get really good at media, right? That's what we're obsessed about, and we always think about media from the advertiser's perspective, and we get ambitious advertisers to think about media in these three related areas. And it's important to kind of think, because this is the way that we think about media on Media Snack, and you'll hear this a lot. We think about capabilities, we think about partners, and we think about the marketer's actual investments. And we typically advise brands that if you can optimize against those three areas, then you'll outperform your category. So that means optimizing internal media capabilities, optimizing the performance of your external media partners, like your agencies, which we'll talk about today, and continually optimizing your paid media investments. And if you can do those three things pretty well, then, as we see in brands, you outperform your category. It' makes your media dollars disproportionately more effective. David, I know you like that phrase. I do. Um, so that's why they call us the media effectiveness company, and on? Media Snack, each week' we'll bring you. some kind of insight- Mm ... in those. areas to help you get good at, media. Okay? So that's the idea. Yeah. And, we're focusing here today partly on the more upfront, the strategic- ... how. to think about budget allocation strategically, and also you've got... I think we'll start with an update on some agency news. Yes. Yes. Yeah. Good. Good. Okay. So what's going on? Um, okay. So- Yeah ... uh, you know, we typically spend a lot of time, talking, uh, about the big holding companies and the, the dynamism within that changing kind of marketplace. Mm. Uh, you' know, we could be accused at' times of ignoring some of the other agencies within the, the very important ecosystem that we operate in. So today, Tom, I want to, uh, shed a little bit of light, a spotlight on Stagwell Group. Mm. And Stagwell Group is a, uh, US-based, headquartered, uh, challenger network. It was founded by the CEO, Mark Penn, a few years ago, and it owns, uh, wonderful agencies like 72andSunny, Assembly in, in, in the UK, my market. Uh, Goodstuff is part of that kind of portfolio, and they have posted really impressive 2025, uh, results. So their revenues were up 6%. And just to add a little bit of context, and I can't help myself but bring in the other holding companies. Yeah. But by way of kind of context, so if we look at the other big holding companies, so Publicis were 4% up in terms of revenues year-on-year. Yeah. Uh, Omnicom in terms of organic growth, if you kind of exclude the IPG bit, which it had- Yep ... kind of in- consumed, they were 4% up. Dentsu were broadly flat and, and as we've talked about before, WPP kind of posted a, an 8% decrease, decline in their, in their year-for-year revenue. So 6%- Yeah ... is, is kind of, it's really good. It's really impressive. Um, and, you know, their growth came from their digital transformation. Yep. That was kind of up 15%. But what was really interesting is they have this thing called Marketing Cloud- Mm ... which is basically their, their portfolio of, uh, AI products, and that was up, albeit from a fairly small base, that was up 230%. Mm. I mean, it's huge, right? And so, it tells you kind of the direction of travel for, for the marketplace. Yep. Uh, their new business, uh, results were also really impressive. They secured nearly half a billion dollars worth of new income from new kind of clients. Mm. So, well done, uh, to the Stagwell group. Uh, a really impressive year, uh, in fairly kind of challenging market conditions, I would imagine. Yeah. Yeah. And can I... You know, what are the implications of this? Mm. And, and, and why are we kind of bringing this out? Well, uh, I love the fact that, that Stagwell position themselves as the ch- the challenger group. So they have purposefully positioned themselves against the big legacy- Yeah ... traditional holding companies as a challenger to the way that they kind of operate. And-I think looking at those kind of new business, results, you know, challenger with steroids, right? Yeah. I mean, that's, their challenger position is obviously working. You know? The, the new business results they had were, were Target and Microsoft, uh, GrubHub, you know, proper advertisers that' were convinced by the offering that they'd made perhaps over and above what the other holding companies. So- That's, but that's my question for you, is that, you know, we- we- we' talk about, Stagwell being amongst this red ocean- Yeah ... group of agencies, right? The Stagwell, Horizon, Havas, and Dentsu- Yeah ... we said that were really gonna be under pressure from these consolidating holding companies. Yeah. Um, and, you know, we thought, we call it red ocean just to remind everybody- Mm ... 'cause it's like there's blood in the water. There's gonna be probably only one or two survivors from that group- Yeah ... we, we think. We always felt Stagwell's like a r- a definitely one to watch. Mm. Right? Is it because Stagwell is a particularly amazing thing, or is this a rejection of the, of the big three that they're- Yeah ... benefiting from? Because those are, as. you' say, those are big brands that might traditionally have worked with, or they maybe, I think some of them did, you know, historically worked with them. Yeah. Well, I think, I think it's like a, I think it's a perfect storm for- Mm ... for Stagwell. Uh, the first thing to note is I think that their, their narrative, their proposition has matured. And, you know, I remember, uh, seeing a presentation from, from Stagwell, uh, and they were participating in a pitch that we ran a few years ago, and their, their narrative, their proposition was so sophisticated, it was so progressive- Mm ... that actually, uh, it somewhat confused and intimidated the client that we were representing. And that particular client, I think, went with a more traditional agency group. Yeah. Because they was right for them at the time. Now, I love the provocation, and I think everybody within the client group when they were reflecting on that presentation- Yeah ... just simply said that they don't think they were brave enough to perhaps go with Stagwell at the time. So I think, I think the market has moved along, has evolved, to allow their proposition to feel more accepting- Yeah ... while still being on the kind of cutting edge. Yeah. So, so I think it's a, it's a, it's a number of things. Um, the other thing that, that, the other implication of this is that, you know, they are, they are a multitude of different disciplined agencies that have been able to operate kind of seamlessly with an operating system that sits underneath it. Now, you know, in, in, in Stagwell's language, it's called the machine that sits underneath it. But again, it's a direct point of comparison with the other big holding companies. Um, and the other thing, the other implication I think we've got is as, you know, the market has evolved to become more focused on performance, you know, AI-enabled, you know, this is, this is their core foundational proposition. The, the legacy agencies, and we see the challenges that WPP have had to deal with in untangling themselves from, you know, deeply entrenched pipes, if you like, to become slightly more future-facing and more progressive. They've never had to do that, because their foundations are still very progressive. Yeah. So, um, what would an advertiser, what would a CMO, a chief marketing officer, uh, need to think? If I was giving them advice, well, I'd give them three pieces of advice. Mm. The first, uh, is be really clear what you're asking for. So, you know, uh, Stagwell may be the right solution for you, but only if you really understand what you need from an agency holding company, from an agency group. Yeah. So being super forensic in understanding what your own operating model looks like, what your own relative strengths and weaknesses are, to enable you to develop a really clear blueprint with which to go to the agency, will allow the very best from the agencies, whether that's Stagwell or any of the holding companies, or Horizon, Havas, whoever it might be. That's the, that's the f- first advice that I would give. Be really clear what you're asking for. Mm. The second thing is be brave. This is a marketplace that, that favors the brave. Yeah. Don't be intimidated by, uh, what you perhaps would consider, uh, less conventional or more progressive agency solutions. Allow them to provoke different thinking. And they may or may not be the right agency for you moving forward, but you will have a clear and very distinct point of view over and above- Yeah ... the holding companies- Mm ... that, you know, some would argue, are fairly homogenous in terms of their kind of offerings. Yeah. So be brave. And then the third thing, and I've said this piece of advice the last three consecutive weeks, and I'm gonna continue saying it, is, uh, please, please, please, you know, forensically analyze and understand the operating systems that sit at the heart- Yeah ... of these agencies, because if you don't understand- Mm ... what they do, what their benefits are, um, and whether those operating systems are, uh, reflective of your needs as an advertiser, then perhaps you're making the wrong decision. So be forensic in that. That, that- Yeah ... and I'm gonna continue giving that piece of advice, because it's, it's the thing that I would be, I would be focusing on if I was on the client side now. Yeah. And just to remind everybody, last week we, um, David started his kind of series of looking at the operating systems of agencies. Yeah. You started, you gave us a, a-A kind of review, an insight under the hood of WPP Open- Yeah ... which is that group's one. Um, we're gonna do similar things with other groups. Yeah. We'll get to Stagwell. In fact, y- I wanna, I wanna invite Mark or one of his team on, um, to our interview show M- M- Media Stack winners, where we just talk, you know, we kind of understand motivations behind people in- Yeah ... the media marketing industry. Um, so good. I mean, it's great. It's really good to focus on Stagwell, definitely kind of one to watch. It's not, shouldn't be new to anybody- Yeah ... because they've been around a long time. Um, but they're seeing the fruits, I think you're right, of having the right ... Uh, a incredibly consistent culture, which we- Yeah ... always say is a winning play. Publicis got that right. Mm-hmm. Right. It's led to them to be s- hugely successful. Yeah. Really consistent culture, um, despite lots of kind of fragmented different agency brands. And then I'm sure they're benefiting from a, a little rejection of the- Yeah ... of the holding company consolidation at that mid-size client level, which is perfect for Stagwell, and they're, and they're- Yeah ... converting them well. Good. Um, great. Okay. Yeah. Let's go on to the next thing. Lead. The one thing I wanted to just quickly, quickly flag up- Yeah ... 'cause I just thought this was kind, again, a small bit of agency kind of news. It got people chi- chit-chatting, was yesterday was Omnicom's, uh, investors briefing on the back of publishing their 2025 results, which were reasonably positive, but came with a lot. of, you know, uh, bitter medicine along with it, which is that, you know, increasing- Yeah ... numbers of layoffs, big talk about AI transformation, and these things seem to be going hand in hand. But peculiarly, what people picked up on, not just the headlines, is that the fact that this is what greeted investors yesterday when they turn up to Omnicom for the briefing. Is a c- is this the new strap line? Everyone's saying, "Is this Omnicom's new strap line?" This was the room where they gave the investor briefing, and it says Omnicom. For those of you listening on, on podcast, um, without seeing this, the big blue stage, it says Omnicom, and underneath it just says, "Our right to win," all capitalized, so there's no mistaking it. That feels like a strap line. That's not a sentiment. That feels like a strap line. Um, it's a very strange thing to say to your customers. Mm-hmm. It doesn't really ... It's not really customer-facing, and so there's lots of questions that, you know, what, what, really, what is this? A lot of the message, I didn't listen to the whole analyst call, I have to say- Yeah. ... to the whole investor presentation since, but I'm reading reporting coming out of it. Um, you know, a lot of focus, talk, talk about things like, um, you know, our technology is going to increa- you know, in- raise the switching cost for our customers, which is not, again, not really f- it's not very customer/marketer friendly. Yeah. Um, their data products are gonna basically m- make it very, very difficult to leave Omnicom. Um, and investors love that stuff, right? 'Cause they go- Mm-hmm ... "Great. Okay, you're not gonna be churning clients." Um, not necessarily good for the customer. Our right to win, I don't feel that ... Doesn't, doesn't feel as, motivating to a CMO. So I'll be surprised if that becomes the strap line. Yeah. But we, you' get to see here a company that's maybe saying one thing to investors and then one thing to their customers. Yeah. And inevitably those things are gonna clash at some point. Um- Interesting. I thought you could just add a Y to that. If you just ... Your, your right to win. Yeah. Maybe that's more int- maybe a bit more motivating. Yeah. Um- Certainly outward facing. I'm not sure that that's gonna be a, you know, their core line going to, going to market. Yeah. Surely not. Yeah. So I think it was just for the investor presentation, I guess. But, um, it's not, it's not a great look. Yeah. Right. Right. Let's go back to, uh, next story. Yeah. Um, what's going on? Well, one observation that I made, David, I don't know ... Listen, I don't know whether you've seen the news. You probably missed it, but there's a war going on apparently in the middle- Yeah ... in the, in the Middle East. Um, and we're not gonna delve into the whys and wherefores of that, and there's obviously, there's m- m- multi sides to this. But where we do look, um, is what the potential impacts are gonna be. And what I found really fascinating this week is that just nobody's talking about it. Yeah. It's really strange to think that in the new- the news, uh, regular news is full of it, business news is full of it. You look at in- advertising news, you're still talking about Super Bowl spots and, you know- Mm-hmm ... what's, what's new campaigns launching and thinking ... There's not one mention. I couldn't find a mention of, like, potential impact. But if you're a CMO, we know because we're speaking to these- Yeah ... uh, you know, marketing and procurement leaders all the time, these are serious now concerns that they're having. Now, I appreciate, you know, worrying about marketing in the shadow of a serious military conflict might feel a bit churlish or, or, or trivial. Um, you know, but, but the sheer scale of this disruption, it guarantees, I think now at this point, because ev- every under- other industry is dealing with this, uh- Yeah ... we're ... Marketing is just sticking its head in the sand, I think, as far as I can figure at the moment. We've gotta talk about it, and I hope there's more reporting on it. Um, there's going to be a massive economic kind of ripple effect, and we've seen this in recent memory. COVID. Yeah. The invasion in Ukraine. Um, what have we just seen in the last year or so? Uh, you know, tariffs. Yeah. All these things have massive disruptions in, in supply chain. And as a marketer, you have, you ... Of course you're worried about that because if you don't have the product that you can deliver to your customers that you're promising, or you're gonna have to adjust your pricing or the ingredients or the raw materials of your product, that, you have to think about that a, a long time in advance. So, um, some reports now are saying we're, we're gonna witness the largest supply disruption in the history of the global energy market. Mm-hmm. That's what one of the energy regulators has, has announced. That should be w- very worrying to marketers. They've got to get a handle on this. Um, even if everything went back to normal today, there's going to be a significant-Delay of, like, production levels that's gonna impact for weeks definitely, probably months. And for the marketer, that creates an immediate domino effect. Disrupts supply chains, spikes the cost of raw materials because they get delayed, um, or they don't arrive. That's gonna trigger inflation fears, which in turn will hit potentially consumer spending, and therefore interest rates, and this is all bad stuff. Like- Yeah ... you can see it in the news. How does it... What's the implications as it applies to marketing? That's really what I wanted to just touch on- Yeah ... because they're questions we're starting to get, but I can s- no- nobody's talking about it. And I don't think they're being discussed on the stages of conferences and things like this. So anyway, we- l- let's address it right now. Our focus is gonna be specifically on media, right? And, and been watching this for the last week, and it reminded me of the COVID pandemic and the, the huge disruption that that created. Even after we kind of were over the pandemic part of it, just the, the l- long legacy of disrupted supply chain. And, uh, I was reminded, one of our, one of our favorite clients of all time is Charlie Chapel at Hershey's. He's now left Hershey, um, but hello, Charlie, if you're watching. Um, voice... Really enjoyed working with Charlie. At the time, he was overseeing the media function at Hershey Company, and they were hugely impacted, and I hope that I'm not giving too much away. The... Obviously, that was... A lot of these companies were, have massive disruption. He was like, "The price of cocoa, the price of plastic, the price of, uh, energy," um, all their raw materials were being affected. And what he said to me, this is just really good, is that we, we, in working with Hershey, had said the, the, the media function at Hershey feels like a bit like an engine to the marketing group. Okay? Because it put a lot of energy, put a lot of money- Yeah ... uh, into media, and that can create the demand, right? So you can rev it up. And Charlie said to me, "I've got my foot on the gas pedal of this engine as the media leader," which I thought was always... I've always loved that idea because he controls the supply of media dollars, you know, gas into that engine, and when he floors that and it's running at full speed, that's cr- generating demand. And in his category, very kind of demand-led category- Yeah ... a lot of impulse buys, all that kind of stuff, right? Yeah. So advertising drives sales. Absolutely. And he said, "For the first time ever, I'm really having to spend time every day talking to our supply chain people. Because if we can't ship Hershey bars or, you know, Reese's or whatever, whatever, um, they're selling, uh, where there are different delays to different parts of the supply chain, they're telling me what's gonna be on the shelves and what's not. So not only are we switching out creative and changing campaigns, I'm also," he said, "I'm feathering that gas pedal-" Yeah ... right, based on supply chain demand." Which... And again, lovely idea. Um, and, you know, credit to Charlie 'cause that was a, that was a really nice way of thinking about it. And I've subsequently... We, we've talked about it a lot. We subsequently shared that with a lot of other media directors. It's a really nice way, it's an empowering way to think about yourself as a media director. You don't just buy bots, spots in the Super Bowl, which is what everyone thinks you do. Yeah. You're feathering demand, customer demand. And so at times like this- Mm ... you have to anticipate changing demand and you have to react. So media budgets is your kind of lever here. Yeah. A few kind of implications then. Um, up-fronts, we're approaching up-fronts. Yeah. Marketers are probably gonna want more flexibility now than they anticipated in 2026. Yeah. And so therefore, with that, kind of, that forward visibility, uh, economically quickly dropping, marketers are gonna be less likely probably to be locking things in this year- Mm-hmm ... 'cause who knows- Yeah ... where we're gonna be in six months' time. More heavy shift towards scatter, more liquid, flexible inventory, definitely. Number two implication is probably with pitches. These are some of the consultations that we've been having in the last week or so. Um, we're maybe, maybe dampening appetite for really big, disruptive pitches. Again, typically, we've seen over the years, marketers, when there's massive uncertainty economically on the market, they tend to just kind of, like, freeze. Like, "This is... Let's just pause everything for the moment." Yeah. "Let's see what happens." Um, which is, which is the right thing to do. We would typically say, "Let's just kind of see how it plays out." So there's some things that are gonna be put on ice, we think probably in the first half of the year. Maybe come back in June, July time. So those are probably two big implications, and those have impacts on the, on the mar- on our industry supply chain because spending will probably be reduced overall in terms of what a marketer's thinking they're gonna commit to the market this year, and leave a lot more flexible. Um, so that means probably less money through the system, which, it has a maybe deflationary effect on media inventory. Uh, definitely has an income effect on agencies, that we've been talking about. Mm. And fewer pitches means perhaps fewer, you know, fewer growth opportunities for those challenger, challenger agencies. Yeah. Those are... That's particularly acute, I think. Yeah. And we'll see in the next few weeks, um, what's gonna happen with that. Mm. What should marketers be thinking? It's similar advice as always. I mean, you, you know, you tell me, David. I, I pitch these things to David because he's- Mm ... the kind of client brain, uh, in the organization. So extreme agility, right? Yeah. You just... You'd be very reticent to be committing right now. Um, you can't control this kind of macro economy, but you can, you can control that gas pedal- Yeah ... of how many media dollars you're putting into the market. So, um, not only should you be maybe feathering that a little bit and just wait and see, uh, but also it's an opportunity to reflect and look at, there is no need to waste a dollar ever in media, but especially now, you know, especially at] these moments. Um, so you've got to think about-More scrutiny over what your spend is. You know, if you're, if you're just pausing for a second, great. Use that time, use that resource, use that energy, and focus to really look at where all your dollars are going. Okay? What's actually working? What can reduce, and what should we... What's, what's wasteful maybe, and we' can just remove it. Yeah. The second is to run some form of media assessment. Um, I talked about it upfront in the show, but the, you know, the way that we think about media in, in terms of optimizing those internal capabilities, optimizing those int- external partnerships with your agencies, optimizing all your paid media, it's worth dropping into one of or all of those and just doing a quick sen- sanity check- Yeah ... just to clean, clean up a bit. Get your house in order. Because, you know, when, when the market's under threat a little bit, you want every dollar to be working harder than your competitor. So this is a good opportunity to reflect, I think. Mm. Um, and over the years, we've found that marketers, you know, embrace those moments, don't they? Those moments of where it becomes status quo- Yeah ... nobody move, let's just see what's gonna happen. Well, u- use that time. Use it wisely. Yeah. Look at your own house internally, see what you can be better at in the next- Yeah ... uh, three, six months or so. Yeah. I've got, I've got two more. Yep. If you... Can I just add- Yep ... just a little bit more kind of context to that? Sure. The, the first actually I would say the, the, the consequence to the marketeer is that this is a brilliant opportunity for media leaders to take a leadership role within their organization. Yeah. Because, you know, whatever type of function you have as a, as a media director, uh, whether that's be a, a, a lobbying one, or whether that's a very directive, strategic role, you control the big, arguably the biggest budget within your organization. Yeah. So now is the time to kind of actually step in and, and assume that leadership position, calm the organization- Yep ... and let them know that the media discipline and the function is in calm hands, and that you are- Yeah ... going to be, uh, proactive, decisive, but informed in the decisions that you're gonna make- Yeah ... to protect the media budget you have. That's the first piece of advice that I've got. And the second piece of advice is, uh, agencies. You know, the, the, some of the, the, the, the best work that I've ever seen or heard, uh, come out of the agencies and being endorsed by their clients was during the pandemic. Mm. When clients needed their agency partners most, they really kind of stepped up. And so- Yeah ... uh, if you do have any concerns, or doubts, or worries about the decisions that you need to be making, kind of lean into the agencies, because they will help you. Yeah. Very good. Uh, love that. Right. J- let's do a couple of quick carve-outs at the end. Any- Yeah ... any other stories caught your eye? Well- There's a lot going on at the moment ... well, actually, actually, one that happened today, hot off the press. Yeah. Um, uh, so, so Dentsu, I went to see Dentsu, uh, and some of the leadership at Dentsu, uh, earlier this week and, and- Yeah ... Tom and I, you and I both worked at Carat a long time ago- Yeah, yeah ... admittedly. And so, you know, there's a special, you know, sentiment that we have towards the agency and we're... And, and it's just a shame that it's, it's had such a difficult, you know, year. Um- Yeah ... and I'm hoping that that's going to kind of pivot and move forward. But in particular, the, the brand Carat, and, and, and I'm not quite sure what Carat stands for any longer, and I, I aired this when I was kind of having this meeting with the leadership team at, at, at Dentsu. Mm. And they said, "Listen, everything is gonna be fine, because we've got a new leader. We've got a new global leader that will come and, and act as the leader of the global Carat practice, kind of reposition Carat." And I said, "Who is it?" She went, "I can't tell you." Yeah. "But whoever it is, it's gonna be amazing." And anyway- Yeah ... it was announced that a lady called Chrissy Hanson- Chrissy Hanson. Yeah ... has, has been appointed as CEO of Dentsu North America. Mm-hmm. But she, her remit will also expand to, uh, overseeing the leadership of Carat, uh, as a- Yeah ... as a network. And, um, and, you know, Chrissy, your hands are full I'm sure, but,you know, best of luck with that, because that's a big job, but the, but the industry needs a strong Carat- Yeah ... uh, in my opinion. Yeah. Very good. Um, and Chrissy, we know, used to run OMD in, in North America, and they've done very well, under her leadership. Um- Yeah ... so yeah, good. Uh, there's some, been some really good leadership changes, I think. I mean, positive leadership changes across, across the industry. Yeah. Um, in the final minute, I mean, there's lots, lots going on. You won't have escaped the news, obviously, of Paramount's $110 billion, $111 billion. There seems to be this weird missing dol- billion dollars, 'cause some people say it's 110, some say it's 111. Yeah. I mean, it's just small change at that point. Um, bid for Warner Brothers, Netflix dropped out of this. Um, you know, it's still got some ways to go. It's got to go through all the kind of appro- approvals and regulators. But for the CMO perspective, it's something that's coming up in conversation really, is just that this ongoing consolidation. That's a thing that's really- Yeah ... just gi- It's a bit of a headache for, for CMOs. It's not so much that, you know, it's giving them sleepless nights, but it's just a headache. Mm. Further consolidation just kind of weakens your leverage. Yeah. It's fewer places to place your money, um, which inevitably is gonna put prices up. That's the, that's the big challenge- True ... is that, you know, the cost of delivery, the cost of impressions, the cost of reach is gonna go up probably, because I don't think in this country it's gonna be regulated hugely- Yeah ... um, for that to be protected. It's probably gonna go through. Mm-hmm. Just be aware. Okay. Um, that's it for this week. We're back every Friday. Join us live, 11:00 AM Eastern, and whatever time that is around the world wherever you are. Um, we'll see you next time. See you next week. Thanks for watching Media Snack Live. If you found it helpful and want to learn more, head to idcoms.com to get more tips, tools, and resources to help you get good at media. We'll see you next week.

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